Scotia Ecnomics forecast for 2011
Global Real Estate Trends

Global Economic Research

December 23, 2010
Canada had one of the better performing housing

markets among advanced nations in 2010, though

also one of the most volatile. An unusually active

winter and spring, prompted by pent-up demand,

expectations of rising interest rates that only

partially materialized, the looming transition to a

Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) in Ontario and British

Columbia, and pending changes in lending

qualifying criteria, gave way to an unusually soft summer. Over the

fall, sales have returned to a more typical, sustainable level.

Pricing has mirrored demand. Average

inflation-adjusted home price appreciation

swung from a twelve-month gain of 16.6%

y/y in Q1 to a decline of 1.5% y/y in Q3.

More recent monthly data point to a

stabilization, with prices essentially

unchanged in the twelve months to

November. For the year as a whole, real

home prices likely averaged about 5%

above 2009 levels.

We are neither overtly optimistic nor

pessimistic regarding the outlook for 2011.

On the one hand, we expect interest rates to

remain at historically low levels, with the Bank of Canada deferring

any further rate hikes until late 2011 given an uncertain global

economic outlook and subdued inflation, and longerterm

borrowing costs drifting up only modestly. This

is an extremely powerful inducement for both firsttime

and move-up buyers and should maintain a

decent level of sales.

Yet, demand will likely be tempered by more

moderate employment and income growth as

government restraint efforts take hold. Public sector

hiring has accounted for fully a third of the net new

jobs created in Canada over the past year, a pattern

not likely to be repeated next year. Overall, we

anticipate a fairly lacklustre year for residential

housing, with modestly higher sales volumes and

flat inflation-adjusted prices (equivalent to a 2%

increase in nominal terms). The bigger risk likely

awaits 2012 when more significant interest rate

increases, combined with record high home prices,

will notably strain affordability.



December, 02 2010 11:34:12 am, by FVREB
Categories: Statistics

For the fifth consecutive month, sales processed on the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) have remained stable with November’s figures showing a modest increase over October.

“Consumers are responding to how prices have moderated in the last six months, in addition to the double dip in mortgage rates,” says Deanna Horn, Board president.

“Buyers are optimistic because of the improved economic conditions, which is why we’re seeing consistency in homes sales in the Fraser Valley.”

A total of 1,084 sales were processed on the Board’s MLS® in November, an increase of 7 per cent compared to 1,014 sales in October and a decrease of 29 per cent compared to 1,522 sales in November of last year.

The Board received the fewest number of new listings this year to date with 1,773 new properties coming on stream in November, a 17 per cent decrease from October and a 15 per cent decrease compared to November 2009. The Board finished November with 9,049 active listings, 5 per cent fewer than in October and an increase of 9 per cent compared to the 8,334 properties available in November 2009.

Horn says, “It’s not unusual to see a dip in new listings at this time of year, however the level of homebuying interest, in particular for homes priced competitively, is stronger than we expected given we’re approaching the holiday season. That combination continues to have a stabilizing effect on home prices in the Fraser Valley.”

The benchmark price for Fraser Valley detached homes in November was $504,848, down 0.2 per cent compared to October and 1.4 per cent higher compared to $497,697 in November 2009.

The benchmark price of Fraser Valley townhouses in November was $319,623, a 0.2 per cent increase compared to October and a 1.2 per cent increase compared to November 2009 when it was $315,890.

Year-over-year, the benchmark price of apartments increased 2.7 per cent going from $235,842 in November 2009 to $242,276 last month and 0.7 per cent higher compared to October 2010.

Reciprocity Logo The data relating to real estate on this website comes in part from the MLS® Reciprocity program of either the Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR), the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) or the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (CADREB). Real estate listings held by participating real estate firms are marked with the MLS® logo and detailed information about the listing includes the name of the listing agent. This representation is based in whole or part on data generated by either the GVR, the FVREB or the CADREB which assumes no responsibility for its accuracy. The materials contained on this page may not be reproduced without the express written consent of either the GVR, the FVREB or the CADREB.